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Midterm election results by state1/27/2024 On Thursday, US Representative Byron Donalds of Florida, whom Trump backed for re-election in 2022, endorsed him as the leader who “can seize the moment and deliver what we need”.Įarly polling suggests the indictment has boosted Trump’s standing in the GOP. Trump’s campaign is highlighting sentiments of support from more than 110 state and federal GOP officials, and – according to one ally – is working behind the scenes to secure more endorsements from lawmakers who Trump has supported in the past. “There is a conscious need from his rivals to not inflame his base.” “The indictment freezes in place the Republican field for now, and blunts any negative impact on Trump in terms of getting the nomination again,” said Dr Marty Cohen, a professor of political science at James Madison University. While Trump faces serious legal jeopardy from the 34 felony charges unveiled by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office on Tuesday – as well as from other state and federal investigations of his conduct – the prosecution’s case marked a political inflection point, prompting Republicans to once again rally behind him.Įven Mr DeSantis – who has not yet formally declared he is running for president – and Republican critics like US Senator Mitt Romney of Utah criticised the prosecution as political. In fact, we’re entering the most bullish part of the calendar – Q4 of year 2 in the 4-year presidential cycle (the second-strongest quarter of all 16 quarters), sporting an average return of 6.6% (since 1950) and Q1 of year 3 (the strongest quarter of all 16 quarters), with a 7.4% average gain.Īnd when we factor in that the third year of the presidential cycle has historically witnessed the best performance of all four years, the outlook for stocks looks even brighter.Trump was at a low point politically after being widely blamed for the GOP’s disappointing 2022 midterm results, compounded by a lacklustre launch of his third White House bid. (History repeating itself once again.)īut more prosperous times typically lie ahead in the latter half of the cycle.Īlso Read: Recessionary risks in 2023: Two charts pointing towards recession The second and third quarters of midterm years are historically quite weak. Those who know their market history will find it somewhat unsurprising that the start of this year was rough. And with an aggressive Fed, high inflation, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the weakness in stocks was amplified. In 2022, the market entered the weak spot of the cycle. Hirsch discovered that wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to start in the first two years of a president’s term. Congressional elections take place – and with them, they bring the potential to shift the political backdrop.Īlso Read: Fed rate hike in November may set the tone for the stock market In fact, it’s the weakest of all four years. In the first two years after an election, the second year tends to be the weakest. US Fed hikes rate by 25 bps in May: The road ahead for the markets
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